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TD-SCDMA to fail by 2009

Analysys said mobile operators will be unwilling to take on the huge economic risks to build and run a pure TD-SCDMA network.

The report said operators such as China Telecom would roll out a combined WCDMA and TD-SCDMA 3G system, which would require massive funds and ultimately lead to failure.

"Handsets are playing a very important role for customers when choosing their mobile communication service," said Eagle Zhang, Analysys' telecom analyst.

Initially, only Chinese handset makers will supply TD-SCDMA products, with the exception of Siemens. This will lead to less variety, inferior quality, and higher prices, making TD-SCDMA less attractive for consumers, the report said

Zhang added, "Both China Telecom Corp and China Netcom will try their best not to bet on TD-SCDMA. They will try not to put too much energy or money into the network."

Despite the gloomy outlook of TD-SCDMA, equipment manufacturers cannot ignore the fact that the technology is a potential opening to getting into the lucrative mobile phone market in China. Earlier this week, China Putian and Nortel Networks announced a joint venture focusing on TD-SCDMA and WCDMA products and solutions.

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